沃頓商學(xué)院《運(yùn)營(yíng)管理概論》題目求教 -不良品被轉(zhuǎn)移到發(fā)運(yùn)部的概率有多大？

有一條50道工序的生產(chǎn)線(xiàn)，每道工序產(chǎn)生質(zhì)量缺陷的可能性是1%，其中任何一道工序產(chǎn)生缺陷都會(huì)導(dǎo)致最終產(chǎn)品的不良；生產(chǎn)線(xiàn)尾部有2個(gè)獨(dú)立工作的質(zhì)檢員，每人捉到不良品的可能性是90%，抓到就報(bào)廢，認(rèn)為合格就轉(zhuǎn)到發(fā)運(yùn)部。

問(wèn)題1：該生產(chǎn)線(xiàn)產(chǎn)生不良品的概率是多大？（不管是否有不良品是否被抓到?jīng)]有）- 這道題答案很簡(jiǎn)單，0.394994

問(wèn)題2：不良品被轉(zhuǎn)移到發(fā)運(yùn)部的概率有多大？- 這道題，我提交的答案是0.061286，但結(jié)果是錯(cuò)的

Consider an assemblyline with 50 steps that are carried out sequentially. Each of the 50 steps hasa defect probability of 1%. The final product produced on the assembly line isdefective if any one of the 50 steps made a defect.

At the end of theassembly line there are two operators independently inspecting the product.Each of them is recognizing a defective product with a 90% probability.Assuming that the product is not defective, it is moved to the shippingdepartment. Otherwise, the product is scrapped.

50SAL1. What is the probability that a defectiveproduct is produced (independent of the defect being found or not)?

50SAL2. What is the probability that a defective product is moved to theshipping department?